Multifamily transaction volume is down 77% since 2022, Opportunity is Up

Do you feel the changing tide? Are you moving with the current, or are you paddling furiously against it?

If you’ve been in the multifamily investing space over the past couple of years, you’ve probably felt it: the deals aren’t flowing, transaction volume is in the tank, and the capital raises? Well, let’s just say we’ve all had to scratch and claw to get them across the finish line.

We’ve seen this before. While no one has a crystal ball, the data makes me confident that we’re heading into one of the best buying opportunities we’ve seen in a long time.

Transaction Volume Has Fallen Off a Cliff (And That’s a Big Deal)

Here’s your first data point: multifamily transaction volume is down 77% since its peak in 2022. Let that sink in.

When you see an industry where everyone—brokers, lenders, operators, construction crews—makes money on buying and selling deals, and suddenly there’s 80% less deal flow, that tells you something. 

That kind of slowdown doesn’t just happen without consequences. It signals that the market is frozen. And when things freeze up like this, it usually means we’re in the early innings of a major market shift.

This isn't just another data point. It’s historically significant. And you don’t need to look at pricing to know that—it’s baked into the lack of liquidity.

What Happens at the Peak? FOMO.

What Happens at the Bottom? Opportunity.

Remember what it felt like back in 2021 and early 2022? Maybe we didn’t know it, but FOMO was everywhere. Everyone was tripping over themselves to buy multifamily, self-storage, industrial—you name it—because they thought it was their last chance to buy at those prices.

Unfortunately we now know that was the peak, and the market has been coming down ever since. Now we’re on the other end of that cycle.

And while most we’ll be slow to take advantage, this is when you want to be active. This is when people are forced to sell. We have had our share of challenges ourselves. When liquidity dries up, the tide goes out, and everything that was loose comes undone. Operators start making decisions they wouldn’t make if they weren’t under financial (and emotional) pressure.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist (or an economist) to recognize the shift is happening. And if you’re paying attention, you can be positioned ahead of the institutions that are still licking their wounds.

Supply and Demand Are on a Collision Course

Everyone’s been talking about supply headwinds, and you can believe that we, like most, have felt the pain of softening rents and concessions.

In 2024, about 550,000 units of multifamily came online. Historically significant, sure—but here’s what matters: 500,000 units were absorbed. Filled. So, yes, supply is heavy, but demand has been there.

In 2025, we’ll see another 500,000 units come online, and most expect demand to match it—again, about 500,000 units absorbed. That’s what the data tells us about the current market.

But what about 2026 and beyond?

Here’s where things get interesting:

• 2026: Supply starts to drop to about 400,000 units.

• 2027: Supply drops again—down to 200,000 units.

Meanwhile, demand? It doesn’t slow down. We need about 450,000 to 500,000 units every year just to keep up with population growth and household formation.

That’s a massive supply-demand imbalance staring us in the face. Meanwhile higher interest rates don’t dampen demand for rentals. They increase it. Fewer people can afford to buy homes, so they rent instead.

Why This Matters for Investors Right Now

The message here is simple: Survive until 2025 might have been the mantra—but thrive in 2026 and 2027 is where the opportunity lies.

By 2026, the data will be undeniable. Supply will be half of what demand requires, and that imbalance is going to lead to rent growth. No one in their right mind should underwrite double-digit rent growth, but would it be surprising to see? Nope.

Trust me - this isn’t a secret. Behind closed doors, institutional investors are already prepping for this.

They’ll get aggressive on exit cap assumptions. They’ll bake in rent growth. They’ll compete for deals like it’s 2021 all over again. But by then, it’ll be obvious. The opportunity will have passed.

What You Can Do Now

Right now, the institutions are on the sidelines. They’re regrouping, waiting for confirmation.

Hopefully, we don’t have to, but as reflected by the low activity, deals are hard to come by. If and when we find one, we need to pounce.

You can be buying the assets they’ll be forced to buy later—at prices that make sense today. Because when the floodgates open again, and FOMO comes roaring back, you’ll be glad you acted when it was tough.

Because that’s when it’s worth it. “Be greedy when others are fearful.”

Key Takeaways:

• Transaction volume is down 77% = early signs of opportunity.

• Supply is falling off a cliff in 2026/2027, but demand isn’t.

• Rent growth could spike as a result.

• Institutions will come back—but you can get there first.

The Tide is turning. Are you ready to move with it?

👉 Want to talk through getting ahead of the next wave? Let’s chat.